How Brentford's data driven approach has led them to the cusp of the Premier League
How Brentford's data driven approach has led them to the cusp of the Premier League
Brentford's business model
Taking over when Brentford were in League 1, Benham has taken the club to Championship promotion candidates and has built a team full of talented players. In his role as owner of Brentford and also FC Midtjylland in Denmark, Benham has used StatsBomb to aid both clubs decision making regarding tactical style of play and as such the recruitment of players to play in that style. Ted Knutson, StatsBomb CEO, wrote an article in 2017 explaining his tactical pitch to Benham (Knutson, 2017). Knutson has worked as Head of Player Analytics at both Brentford and Midjtylland, providing them with statistical analysis before many other clubs decided to take the same approach. The main target in attack was to 'create the largest volume of high xG shots possible.' Ollie Watkins has been a prime example of that ambition this season, with the vast majority of his goals this season coming from in and around the six yard box. These recommendations from StatsBomb were made in 2014 so tweaks will have been made, and within the article, Knutson analyses how during the 2017/18 season, Brentfords high xG chance creation was very poor. During the 2019/20 season, their attack has been the Championship's best. In a more recent StatsBomb article, Oliver Walker explains that it is Brentford's defence during the 2019/20 season that has been the differential, leading to the higher league position than previous seasons (Walker, 2020). The signing of Pontus Jansson from Leeds has certainly had a big impact on their defensive solidity.
Since promotion from League 1 in the 2013/14 season, Brentford have finished in the top half of the championship every year and this season was on course to be their best yet, before the season was paused. Their mission to gradually increase the quality of their squad has been working, as they look to be strong contenders for promotion. Brentford have a wealth of talented players, seemingly ready to make the step up to play Premier League football. Currently sitting 4th in the Championship, it looks as though they are heading for a play-off place as their opportunity to reach the top division. Some of their key players this season have been on great form and have been displaying quality that may be suitable to step up. They have scored 64 goals, which is the highest in the league (joint with West Brom) and conceded 33 goals which is the second lowest in the league. If promotion is not achieved this season, some of Brentford's most talented players may move on to to play in the Premier League if they cannot get there with Brentford. It is within Brentford's business model to sell players so it would not be suprising to see a couple move on if they do not gain promotion this season.
Improved defensive performance
Using data to measure defensive performance is much trickier than with attacking output. Statistics such as tackles made, interceptions and blocks tend to favour centre backs from teams lower in the league due to the fact they are defending more often during matches. It is clear that Brentford's defence has been much improved this season, with the 3 centre backs Pontus Jansson, Ethan Pinnock and Julian Jeanvier mainly filling the 2 positions in a 4-3-3 formation. Each of the 3 have racked up just over 2200 minutes, meaning they have all rotated between the 2 positions very evenly. As a defensive unit, Brentford conceded 1.27xG last season, which is down to 0.86 this season (Chroust, 2020), which is a 'Championship-low'. Chroust suggests that Brentford's improvement in winning duels is the basis of their improved defensive output. Their duel percentage in the defensive half was 55.1% last season which was a Championship low, however this season it has risen to 59% which is now 4th in the league. Their 'aerial percentage' has risen from 49.6% to 59.7% which sees them up from last place to fifth in that measure. This season Jansson and Pinnock were both brought in, Jansson standing at 6ft4inches tall and Pinnock measuring up at 6ft2inches. Both players have 'duel percentages over 60 and aerial percentages over 64, which are significant numbers.' (Chroust, 2020). Norgaard who sits infront to protect the defence is also over 6 foot and provides good defensive cover.
Brentford's front three
Arguably Brentford's three best players this season have been their attacking trio of Bryan Mbeumo, Ollie Watkins and Said Benrahma. Between them they have scored 46 goals and provided 16 assists, majorly contributing to Brentford being the top goal scorers in the Championship. Each player brings something to Brentford's attack, both wingers like to cut inside on to their stronger foot and Watkins has become a fantastic penalty box striker. Counter attacking is a large part of Brentford's style of play, this season 'their 6.4 counter attacks per match lead the Championship and are 40% more than league average.' (Chroust, 2020). However, their build up and possession is what has made the difference in regards to their rise up the table, countering is resulting in only a 'league average' amount of chance creation whereas their scoring from 'build up, sustained threat and crossing is up.' (Chroust, 2020)
Bryan Mbeumo
The first player to discuss is Bryan Mbeumo, a 20 year old French right winger. He joined Brentford from Troyes for £5.85million in the Summer of 2019. This season he has registered 14 goals and 6 assists playing mainly as a right sided attacker. He caught the eye of Brentford by scoring 10 ligue 2 goals in the 18/19 season. In his first season at Griffin Park, he has been one of the Championship's standout players. His 14 goals ranking him the 6th top scorer in the division. Even more impressive is that his 14 goals (non from penalties) have come from just 7.2 expected goals (Chroust, 2020). This suggests that his finishing has been fantastic and that he has been scoring chances that not many others would. As a left footer, his most common finish is cutting inside from the right and putting it past the goalkeeper in to the far post, however he has also scored a free kick and a couple of headers, showing that he is versatile in his methods of finishing. His goals are a mixture of strikes from outside the area and finishes in the area and around the six yard box. So far he looks like another inspired signing from Brentford and if he can continue that form he may soon be playing in the Premier League, either for Brentford or another Premier League club who make a move.
Ollie Watkins
One Brentford player finished above Mbeumo in the scoring charts this season, racking up 22 league goals. Their main striker this season has been Ollie Watkins, the second top scorer in the division. Watkins joined Brentford from Exeter City in July 2017 for £1.8million. Brentford have certainly found a return for their investment in Watkins and would be sure to make a nice profit if they were to sell him on. In the last 2 seasons, Watkins scored 10 goals in each Championship campaign and racked up 5 and then 8 assists respectively. This season his tally of 22 goals and 3 assists shows more of a focus on the goal scoring side of his game. Last season Watkins was used more as a winger due to the presence of Neal Maupay as the striker. However, this season Watkins has excelled in the sole striker role. His fine form this season has already drawn links between Watkins and various Premier League suitors, with rumours of him joining Southampton most common this past January, but Watkins opted to stay and fight for promotion at Brentford. However, if that isn't reached this season, it would not be a surprise to see the english striker make the step up himself. The majority of Watkins' goals this season have come from in and around the six yard box. This demonstrates that his main task now is to be the primary goal scorer for Brentford and to get himself in the best position possible to score goals. It has certainly been working this season, with his 22 league goals only 1 behind top scorer Mitrovic and totalling 34% of Brentford's league goals. Premier League clubs should be aware of this change in Watkins' style when considering a move for the 24 year old. He has had such success as a sole striker in Brentford's 4-3-3 system, it would be smart for clubs who play a similar style or formation to consider Watkins as their leading man.
Said Benrahma
The final member of Brentford's front 3 is Said Benrahma, a 24 year old Algerian who has played mainly as the left attacker in Brentford's system. Another credit to Brentford's recruitment, Benrahma was bought from french side Nice in July 2018 for £1.53million. In the 2017/18 season, Benrahma was on loan in Ligue 2 at Chateauroux , similarly to Mbeumo who was also playing in Ligue 2 before his move to Brentford. This shows that Brentford have identified the French second division as a league with a lot of talent that they can develop to increase their squad quality and sell on for profit, they also purchased centre back Julian Jeanvier and ex striker Neal Maupay after successful Ligue 2 seasons. One of Benrahama's main strength is his skilfulness. On average Benrahama completes 7 take ons per 90, which is outrageously good (Chroust, 2020). He is fantastic to watch, frequently attempting nutmegs, step overs and even rainbow flicks to beat his opponent. He is not just all skill and no end product however, as he has registered 10 goals and 7 assists in the Championship this season. Last season was even more impressive as he also reached 10 goals and provided 15 assists for his team mates. He is right footed playing off the left so his main objective is to cut inside and either shoot or lay a ball of for his team mates. This is similar to Mbeumo who does the same on the other side.It is important to note that these three forwards play very well together and as a result have led to Brentford being the top scoring team in the league. Premier League clubs who are considering moves for these players should try and use them in a similar style. The protection they have behind them allows for the flair of Benrahma and Mbeumo to flourish and as an attacking 3, they have scored 46 of Brentfords 64 Championship goals this season. The pace and flair of Benrahma, Mbeumo and Watkins allows for Brentford to regularly hit teams on the counter attack.The Championship now seems to be returning on the 20th of June, providing the Coronavirus curve carries on flattening. If Brentford are promoted and can retain their 3 main attackers, it could be very entertaining to see if they can continue their form again tougher Premier League defences together as an attacking 3.
Ligue 2 - hotbed for cheap talent?
Brentford have frequently scouted Ligue 2 and signed some of their top players after successful seasons in the French second division. Benrahma and Mbeumo were both signed off the back of Ligue 2 seasons, as was Centre Back Julian Jeanvier and ex Striker Neal Maupay, who moved to Brighton for £19.80mil in August 2019. Brentford bought Maupay from St Ettiene after a successful loan spell in Ligue 2 for Stade Brest. They spent £1.80mil to bring him to Griffin Park, meaning they may an £18mil profit. Similar fees would likely be demanded if Benrahma or Mbeumo were going to be let go from the club. Meaning similar profits for Brentford, this demonstrates the effectiveness of their model and their data driven approach to recruitment.Other big name players have come through Ligue 2 in recent years before making their way to the big time. Tanguy Ndombele, Tottenhams £54million central midfielder, was playing his football in Ligue 2 as recently as the 2016/17 season. He moved on to Lyon where he showed his quality to the world and has even recently been linked to Barcelona. Before leading Leicester to shock Premier League glory in 2015/16, N'golo Kante was playing in the French second division for SM Caen in the 2013/14 season. Riyad Mahrez was also spotted by Leicester when playing for Ligue 2 side Le Havre in the 2013/14 season before signing for the soon to be title winners in January 2014. He was signed for a mere £450,000, meaning Leicester made a profit of just over £60mil when he moved on to Manchester City.
Have they reached success?
Considering the fact that they were in League 1 only 6 years ago, pushing for Premier League promotion seems like success. On top of that, the profit being made from player sales due to smart recruitment allows them to be a self-sustainable business, which further adds to the success. It would be very interesting to see how they fare if they do reach the Premier League, if their front three can reach the same levels as this season, or if they can continue sourcing hidden gems from leagues such as Ligue 2. Now that the Championship seems to be returning, Brentford will be fully focussed on their play-off ambitions.References:
Kevin Chroust, 2020; Certain Numbers for Uncertain Times: Brentford now have results to match their progress., Available at; https://www.statsperform.com/resource/certain-numbers-uncertain-times-brentford-have-results-to-match-their-process/
Oliver Walker, 2020; StatsBomb Mailbag: Championship Edition., Available at; https://statsbomb.com/2020/02/statsbomb-mailbag-championship-edition/
Ted Knutson, 2020; Inferior Tactical Strategies - The Bizarro World of Brentford., Available at; https://statsbomb.com/2017/09/inferior-tactical-strategies-the-bizarro-world-of-brentford/
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