Tottenham Hotspur vs Manchester United Preview
Tottenham Hotspur vs Manchester United Preview
Tottenham Hotspur vs Manchester United
Friday 19th June
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
8pm
One of the biggest matches of the Premier League's return is Tottenham vs Manchester United. Jose Mourinho takes on Ole Gunnar Solskjaer at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Last time the 2 sides met, Solskjaer's reds came out on top at Old Trafford, winning 2-1 thanks to 2 Marcus Rashford goals. This time is going to be very different. Spurs' new stadium will be almost empty and players are unlikely to be fully match sharp, 5 substitutions will also be allowed which could prove to be the difference late in the game. United currently sit 5th in the league on 45 points, with Spurs in 8th on 41. This game could prove crucial in the hunt for top 4, as both sides will be aiming for that 4th Champions League spot where Chelsea are currently sitting on 48 points. It is still unknown as to whether 5th place will be granted a Champions League spot due to Manchester City's financial breaches, so both sides will be hoping to squeeze in to that top 4.
United may have been served well by the temporary break, as now Marcus Rashford and Paul Pogba have returned to training and, all going well, should be in the squad against Spurs. The same could also be said about Tottenham, with Kane, Son, Sissoko and Bergwijn all set to be fit to face United. With the long lay off, these players may be at the same match fitness as their teammates so as a result could be put straight back in to the starting XI. It is unknown whether Mourinho or Solskjaer will take these risks or try and ease their key players back in to the swing of Premier League football.
Last time the 2 sides faced off, these were their respective lineups.
United
Spurs
Previous Match Analysis
For the previous match between the sides, as shown by the above lineups, neither side was at full strength. Marcus Rashford was the difference maker in the last match, his first goal opening the scoring in the 6th minute. It was a strike from just inside the penalty area which beat Gazzaniga at his near post, a shot which he should probably have saved. He then hit the bar from long range before Dele Alli scored a fantastic equaliser in the 39th minute. His first touch took the ball over Young's head, picking a dropping ball out of the sky to then poke past De Gea. In the 49th minute, Rashford beat Aurier with ease on the left hand side, Sissoko came over to cover but eventually conceded a penalty, fouling Rashford in the box, who then went on to convert the penalty calmly. The xG for the match came out at 1.2 to 0.5 in United's favour, showing that it was a match of little chances, with a penalty being the deciding factor. Most of United's xG came from the penalty kick, without the penalty the xG was even at 0.5 each. Both of the other goals came from relatively unlikely chances, with neither side able to create high quality opportunities.The key battle in the last match was between Marcus Rashford and Serge Aurier. Both United goals came from attacks targeted down their left hand side, with Aurier being beaten for both. However, Aurier did make 6 tackles and 6 interceptions (both match highs) so he was not as bad as the highlights make out. Rashford attempted 11 dribbles but only succeeded in 4 of them, showing that Aurier did have some success against him, but the volume that Rashford was trying meant that when he succeeded, he was able to create a goalscoring opportunity. When Aurier was beaten, his teammates did not help him out, with Sanchez making a mistake under pressure from Lingard to allow Rashford to shoot and score his first, and then Sissoko giving away a silly penalty for the second.
Mason Greenwood and Harry Kane were the strikers in the match, with only Greenwood managing 1 shot on target between the 2 of them. Chances were few and far between, with the players behind them creating little for them to feed off. In the centre of midfield, Fred and McTominay had the better of Winks and Sissoko. Fred and McTominay created 6 shots for their teammates, Winks and Sissoko created 1. Their passes were much more progressive, moving 509 yards to Sissoko and Winks' 259 (data from fbRef & StatsBomb). The midfield partnerships are likely to be different during the return fixture, with Pogba, Matic, Ndombele and Lo Celso all back to fitness. These players may go straight in to the starting XI's and they would be 2 very good midfields, it will be interesting to see which comes out on top.
Friendlies so far
For both sides, preparation has not gone to plan so far. Spurs have played 1 friendly against Norwich, which was split in to 4 thirty minute quarters. They lost 2-1, but the main talking point from the match, is that during the next round of Premier League testing, an unnamed Norwich player, who took part in that match, tested positive for Coronavirus and will now need to isolate for 7 days. Tottenham have responded saying that it is highly unlikely that any of their players will be affected as they were not in close contact with the individual for a long enough time. Lets hope that is the case and the Tottenham team can safely participate in Friday's match. They were also scheduled to play Reading but that game was called off.For United, they were also meant to have 2 friendlies but their first, against Stoke City, was called off when their manager tested positive on arrival to the training ground. They then went up against West Brom in a double header, losing the first match but winning the second. These games are mainly to bring the players back up to match fitness so the lineups, scorelines and goal scorers are not of much importance.
Potential Lineups
Both sides have favoured a 4-2-3-1 during this season but have not been afraid to use a 5 at the back system against certain opposition. The upcoming match on the 19th should prove to be an interesting tactical battle, with both sides either matching their formations or one or even both managers possibly using their 5 at the back systems to try and counter opposition threats. Through this 'pre season' period, both managers will have plenty of time to work on their tactical systems and ensure that every player knows their role. Mourinho joined Spurs mid season, so may be thankful for the opportunity to spend this time with his squad. Due to the fact that all players are now back available, and there has been no Premier League action for months, it is very tough to predict how both sides are going to line up. Some players may be sharper than others and I would not be surprised to see substitutions made at half time so players can gain fitness by playing a half each.Predicted XI's
United
United's lineup is very hard to predict due to the fact all players are back to fitness. Throughout the season, Ole has favoured a 4-2-3-1, with a tendency to use 5-2-1-2 in certain matches. When the Premier League returns, clubs are allowed to make 5 substitutions and United I think that Ole will probably make use of that to ease Pogba back in. The other injuries such as Rashford and McTominay have played Premier League football more recently than Pogba so may be put straight in to the first match. If Pogba is at the same level of fitness as his teammates he may be trusted in the starting XI, and would likely drop McTominay or Fred.
For United it is a toss up between the 4-3-2-1 and 5-2-1-2. If Solskjaer opts for the latter, this may be how United line up against spurs. Brandon Williams has been a revelation at Left Back for United, as well as pushing Luke Shaw to step up his game. Ole has chosen to start them both a few times to get them both in to the starting XI. Shaw is used as the left centre back, who has the range to step out of the line and progress the ball forwards. Eric Bailly may also be an option at Centre Back if Solskjaer wants a more proven central defender to neutralise Spurs.
With the opportunity to use 5 substitutes during the oncoming fixtures, clubs are sure to use their whole squads to impact a match. United have players such as Greenwood, Lingard and Ighalo who can offer a threat going forward from the bench. Eric Bailly and Axel Tuanzebe also provide good cover for Maguire and Lindelof at centre back.
Spurs
Spurs have also used a 4-2-3-1 for the majority of their games this season. Full backs have been a weakness, their Centre backs have also not performed to the levels of previous seasons. New signings Ndombele and Lo Celso had such promise and have shown their quality at times, however have not shone as much as was expected. Question marks still surround Spurs' strongest midfield. As shown above, Lo Celso and Ndombele did not start against United, with Ndombele coming off the bench. Both have struggled with injuries throughout the season so are yet to lock down places in Spurs' starting XI's. Now with every player back fit, similar to United, it will be interesting to see who Jose Mourinho chooses as his strongest midfield. With the option of more subsitutions you will be sure to see those who do not start make their way on from the bench. Jose has had his criticisms of Ndombele since joining Tottenham, leading to reports of him possibly leaving the club this summer, 1 year after signing. I think it would be a huge oversight from Mourinho and Tottenham not to put their faith in Ndombele and back him as one of their top central midfielders. Ndombele has made 12 Premier League starts this season, and Lo Celso 7. The French midfielder has so far provided 2 assists for his teammates, with an xA of 1.3 (more than Winks, Sissoko and Lo Celso).
A graph to compare Tottenhams midfielders Dribbles, Key Passes and Tackles
A graph to show Tottenham's midfielders Expected Goals and Assist Per 90 minutes
As you can see, each midfielder brings their own strengths to the team, the weakest statistically is probably Harry Winks however he seems to be a mainstay in the Spurs side. Sissoko can be effective however I believe that Lo Celso and Ndombele is Tottenham's strongest midfield duo, with Dele Alli in number 10. With the upcoming fixture congestion, this midfield rotation is going to be hugely important. Gedson Fernandes was also signed in January on a loan deal to provide even more depth.
Picking a predicted lineup for Spurs is tough, with the combination of midfielders to choose from, whether Mourinho will put Kane straight back in and their defensive struggles this season. Dele Alli's suspension makes it slightly easier for this first game
This is the team that I think Mourinho will go for on the 19th of June. This is probably Spurs' strongest XI and in what seems to be Mourinho's favoured formation. It takes a similar shape to the XI that started against United in the previous fixture, with just Lo Celso, Ndombele and Lloris coming in for suspended Alli, Sissoko and Gazzaniga. The 3 additions should improve spurs creativity, which was lacking in the previous match.
From the bench, players such as Bergwijn, Gedson Fernandes and Eric Lamela can make an impact in the final third. Tanganga, Davies, Foyth, Dier and Sissoko could come on to impact the game in midfield or defence. Mourinho has favoured Tanganga and Sissko so far this season so I would not be surprised to see either of them start.
Tactics
In the previous fixture, chance creation was the main problem for both sides. This should be different come Friday night. United have added Bruno Fernandes who has taken to the Premier League incredibly well and Spurs should have Ndombele and Lo Celso fit with the addition of Bergwijn in January also providing some attacking depth. Since joining in January, Fernandes has registered 2 goals and 3 assists for United and has provided an incredible boost to the side in the attacking third. His creativity has brought a lot to United and he always demands the ball. It has been refreshing for United fans to have such a creative spark in that number 10 position. Also Paul Pogba's return hugely impacts United's creativity in the final third. Pogba's passing range is fantastic and he is adept at picking out Rashford and Martial in behind opposition defences. Last season Pogba recorded 13 goals (7 penalties) and 9 assists. He has great qualities which Manchester United have been missing this season.
Bruno Fernandes vs Everton - shoots and scores past Pickfords near post
Bruno Fernandes vs Watford - slides Martial in behind takes a shot which is saved but proceeds to score the rebound calmly
This diagram depicts the position that Bruno Fernandes will like to pick up, and the options he may have to choose from in front of him. If Spurs play a 4-2-3-1 it will be important that Harry Winks, or their deepest lying midfielder, picks up Fernandes and closes him down in these areas. He can shoot well from long distance and also pick through balls in behind defences if allowed this space.
Marcus Rashford is one of Manchester United's key attacking players and as I mentioned previously, may target Serge Aurier down the left hand side. Above shows the option an overlapping Luke Shaw can offer when Rashford is running at Aurier. Shaw's run overloads the left hand side and forces Aurier in to making a decision to follow Rashford inside or cover the pass. Rashford and Martial are interchangeable and often swap between the striker and left wing roles. This could work for either of them as they are both right footed, and favour cutting inside and shooting with their right foot.
Before the break, Spurs were without a win in 3 Premier League games. They lost to Chelsea and Wolves before picking up a draw against Burnley. Due to the injuries to Kane and Son, they lacked an attacking presence, with Lucas Moura, Bergwijn and Dele Alli being used as a makeshift front 3. When their players have been fit, Mourinho has opted for a 4-2-3-1 with either Son or Kane up front. Despite their injury problems mainly affecting Spurs' attack, their defense has also remained shaky all season. This is not something often associated with a Jose Mourinho team.
Tottenham's attack should be back to full strength for this match, however United's defence has been quite good this season. They have conceded 30 goals so far this campaign, which is 4th best in the league. Aaron Wan-Bissaka and Harry Maguire have certainly sured it up, however there are still ways that they have been conceding goals. Aaron Wan-Bissaka's tackling is one of his main assets, winning 59.7% of his tackles when being dribbled towards. This ranks him 7th in the league, however his volume far outweighs those above him, winning 40. He can however, be caught out of position at times when he pushes up the pitch. Tottenham's top assister Heung-Min Son plays on Wan-Bissaka's side so this will be another key battle. If Son can catch Wan-Bissaka out of position on a counter attack, United could be vulnerable, as Wan-Bissaka will be playing catch up and trying to regain ground. He is typically good at this, but Son's quality may create Spur's some chances.
In this scenario, United have lost the ball high up the pitch, and Son has an opportunity to counter attack. Wan-Bissaka is trying to recover and make a challenge, with Lindelof and McTominay coming over to cover, such is the gravity the Son will bring. This allows Kane, Moura and Lo Celso their individual space to make runs, which Son could potentially pick out and cause United problems on the counter. Lucas Moura could also have this opportunity on the right hand side if Shaw is caught out of position. Aurier will be Spurs' more advanced full back so they may try and overload Luke Shaw if Rashford or Fred do not provide defensive cover. Aurier has attempted 97 crosses this season, more than anyone else for either side. As Vertonghen at left back would be more defensive, Aurier has freedom to push up the right hand side. In this situation, he has the option to cross in for Kane or Son or to play a ball in to Lucas Moura for a potential shot or cut back. As their battle showed in the last match, Aurier and Rashford got the better of each other on a few occassions, so it is as important for Rashford to track back and assist Luke Shaw as it is for him to go forward. If Aurier and Moura overload the right hand side it could allow for potentially dangerous crosses in to the Manchester United box.
Harry Maguire's desire to play out from the back, has really benefitted Manchester United's system. He often steps out from his defensive position to try and pick a more progressive pass to one of his teammates.
Once in that position, he has more options to pick out, as he has taken the ball past Tottenham's attacking line who are marking the shorter passing options. He can now look out wide to Rashford, or directly to Martial, Fernandes or look for a switch out to James.
Once he has taken the ball in to the midfield area, he has taken Kane, Moura, Son and Lo Celso out of the game. He can now see the whole pitch in front of him and pick a progressive pass to one of his teammates. If Pogba is playing he may distribute it to him also as he has the creativity to break down a back line.
Prediction
As we have seen with the Bundesliga return, matches have been very hard to predict. With the heavy fixture schedule rotation is important, the impact of home advantage may be diminished and players may not be as sharp as they could be. Previous form suggests that United are the stronger side and they were on much better form before the enforced break. Their returning players will only make them stronger so I think that they will be favourites for this match. However, you can never rule out a Jose Mourinho side and this time off may have been useful for him to assess his players and bring them up to scratch. They also have attacking players returning which will make them more of a threat and should prove to be an interesting match up.Tottenham Hotspur 1-3 Manchester United
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